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Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and by John Mauldin

By John Mauldin

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Extra resources for Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market

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6 Essentially, the authors create a fairly complex mathematical model of the economy. They note that based on earlier studies, there is a demonstrable difference between how young workers spend and invest and how older workers spend and invest. Further, there are differences in income. The authors take into account business cycle shocks, output fluctuations, and how much risk tolerance or aversion each generation has. 7 This is a well-known life cycle of an investor, but it has an important role to play.

While it can take a long time for some classes to revert to the trend, this style is successful if you have time and patience. Grantham has been very successful at simply investing for the long term using history as his guide. As a student of history, I like his approach because you are able to get on the right side of long-term trends. You will miss bubble tops and get in too soon on irrational bottoms, but patience and time will see you rewarded. We are going to look at three separate pieces of received wisdom from Grantham that have great relevance for today.

Based upon Tobin’s Q (the market value of a firm’s assets divided by their replacement value) the market is too high by 31 percent. The price of stocks to What Will the Stock Market Return over 10 Years? the 10-year average of real earnings is too high by 31 percent and as a function of market cap to GNP the market would need to come down by 45 percent to get back to trend. Mind you, this is in late 2002. The numbers would be worse in the first quarter of 2004. The trend line for P/E is slightly under 15.

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