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Adeus Aposentadoria: Como Garantir Seu Futuro Sem Depender by Gustavo Cerbasi

By Gustavo Cerbasi

Adeus, aposentadoria – Esqueça tudo o que você já ouviu falar sobre aposentadoria. A ideia de parar de trabalhar e se sustentar com um auxílio mensal é um conceito ultrapassado para dar conta do padrão de vida que queremos ter.

Bancos, empresas de previdência, fundos de pensão e o Ministério da Previdência Social recomendam que as pessoas poupem mais ao longo dos anos para chegarem com uma boa reserva à idade avançada. Mas será que apenas essa poupança unravel o problema?

Quem já passou dos 60 anos lamenta não ter se esforçado mais no passado e sabe que, mesmo que tivesse dobrado seu esforço, ainda estaria longe de uma situação confortável. Como estamos vivendo mais, com mais qualidade, custo de vida mais alto e maior nível educacional e cultural, a renda de uma aposentadoria – pública ou privada – não é suficiente hoje. A velha fórmula deixou de funcionar.

É preciso adotar um modelo realista para planejar o futuro. Reunindo
pesquisas e reflexões sobre casos de fracasso e de sucesso, este livro propõe uma nova forma de enxergar o trabalho e de lidar com o dinheiro, oferecendo conselhos atualizados sobre a melhor maneira de se educar, de investir, de empreender e de gerenciar a carreira.

Ao longo de mais de uma década, Gustavo Cerbasi vem se dedicando a estudar e trabalhar com educação financeira, orientando públicos de diversas idades e sessions sociais. Em Adeus, aposentadoria, ele apresenta um plano para administrar sua riqueza que inclui dicas personalizadas de acordo com sua faixa etária. Além disso, faz uma análise das modalidades existentes de aposentadoria e aponta suas principais falhas.

Sem dúvida, o desafio para conquistar uma vida futura mantendo o padrão atual e sem depender de ninguém é grande, mas é possível se começarmos a realizar esse projeto desde já.

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However, the situation is unfortunately not so idyllic. First, we have in practice at most five CDO prices for each tranche to calibrate the copula function. It is then likely to be a copula family with few parameters; otherwise, our calibration would not have a deep meaning. If the copula family depends on only one parameter, it is, however, not possible in general to fit all the prices well. When this parameter has an intuitive meaning, a common practice is to represent CDO prices with this parameter.

Nonetheless, some of them, such as CDSs on large companies and CDOs on standard pools, have been standardized in the recent past. We give here a precise description of these CDSs and CDOs. Now, let us think about the two categories mentioned in terms of information. It is well known that market prices reflect some information on the economy, so what kind of information could we grasp from the prices of single-name and multiname credit derivatives products? Single-name prices will inform on the default probability of one firm in the future and, in this way, on the health of that firm.

However, vanilla options cannot be used to hedge abrupt jumps in stock price. The model allows for this by adding jumps to the stock diffusion. If we want to complete the market, we need to add a new instrument to the portfolio, and most of all to make the unrealistic assumption that the jump size is known in advance. To get around that problem, Herzog and Turc assume that small jumps can be hedged using out-of-the-money options (taken into account via stochastic volatility) and that the actual jump parameter in the model represents a jump to zero—in other words, that it merely provides the timing of default for the reference entity.

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