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A Global Perspective on Real Estate Cycles by Stephen J. Brown, Crocker H. Liu (auth.), Stephen J. Brown,

By Stephen J. Brown, Crocker H. Liu (auth.), Stephen J. Brown, Crocker H. Liu (eds.)

In March 1999, ny collage Salomon heart in organization with the dept of Finance at NYU Stern held a one-day convention at the impression of actual property cycles at the actual property either from a family in addition to a global viewpoint. The convention featured the best examine in this subject within the usa, Europe and Asia. Currendy, the genuine property is at a serious element. New improvement tasks around the globe are being wear carry given contemporary advancements within the overseas capital markets. The is tough hit by means of the decline in actual property funding belief (REIT) proportion costs and a slash­ ing pool of capital for genuine property ventures. This has regrettably coincided with severe monetary difficulties of very huge hedge cash and different institutional traders available in the market for advertisement personal loan sponsored securities. there's desire for brand spanking new insights into the consequences of U. S. and worldwide actual property cycles on actual property secu­ rities together with REITs and mortgage-backed securities in addition to direct actual property funding. This international orientation is critical given the excessive mobility of capital into the true property, the expanding integration of actual property markets, and the proposed expan­ sion of actual property funding trusts (REIT) into overseas genuine property. the method of globalization has ended in elevated festival among towns for the attrac­ tion of investment.

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3. Real Estate and The Asian Crisis: Lessons of the Thailand Experience 41 A. Thai Lenders' Behavior 1. A Conceptual Perspective: Four Paths to Banking Problems The role of moral hazard should not be overemphasized. There can be other causes of banking problems. A recent review paper has argued that there have been four distinctive and often complementary ways for excessive and destabilizing lending to real estate; (Renaud, 1998). These four explanations are only outlined here before discussing specific features of the Thai market: • Disaster Myopia.

This tendency is compounded by the nature of asymmetric rewards from real estate development, biasing the risk assessment if the decision to build. As Grenadier (1992) puts it, "If demand turns out to be high, the owner will gladly exercise the option to lease out all or most of the units at high rents, and benefit greatly. If demand instead turns out to be low, the owner will not exercise the option to lease all of the units immediately, but instead will wait for the market to turn around before paying the lump sum cost of leasing space.

Many other central banks around the world were caught by surprise. 4 The stock market boom itself played a role in fueling the real estate cycle. A Thai analysis of the 356 non-financial companies listed on the SET has shown that corporate over-investment was already apparent in 1993. Symptoms for that were declines in asset turnover, return on assets, profit margins, and return on equity. (See Pathra Securities Thailand, 1998). Real estate development companies listed on the Bangkok SET took advantage of the boom to expand their sources of funding.

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