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A Disequilibnum Model of Real and Financial Accumulation in by Prof. Giancarlo Gandolfo, Prof. Pietro Carlo Padoan (auth.)

By Prof. Giancarlo Gandolfo, Prof. Pietro Carlo Padoan (auth.)

This is the fourth model of a version that 5 years in the past we got down to construct and estimate alongside the traces of the continual time method clarified In bankruptcy 1. earlier types seemed in magazine articles and convention court cases, the place the distance is notoriously restricted. for that reason we welcome the potential for publishing a book-length therapy of this fourth model, in order that we will describe its theoretical and empirical features in a few element. even if we have now labored heavily jointly and settle for joint accountability for the entire booklet, chs. 1 and a couple of and appendix i've been written by means of G. Gandolfo, when chs. ] and four and appendix II were written via percent. Padoan. diverse components of this model of the version were mentioned In a number of lectures on the eu collage Institute (Florence) in 1984, In a seminar geared up by means of the financial institution of Italy (Sadiba, Perugia, Italy, February 16-18, 1984), within the moment Viennese Workshop on fiscal functions of keep an eye on concept (Vienna, may perhaps 16-18, 1984), and within the 6th annual convention of the Society for financial Dynamics and keep watch over (Nice, France, June 13-15, 1984). In all of those we acquired worthwhile reviews; equally beneficial have been the reviews of Clifford R .. Wymer, who, even if, is absolved of any responsibility.

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Thus our choice is different from that suggested by Black (1983), according to whom (p. 190) "Despite the frequent use by economists of market determined variables, such as the rate of growth of the money supply or short-term interest rates, as "instruments" of central banks, I believe that the term should be limited to variables which are actually in the hands of the authorities". These considerations lead hirn to use the discount rate as the dependent variable in the monetary authorities' erations reaction function.

156) but significant, which means that operators are rather slow 45 . in changing output expectatlons 4 If one considers the resul ts concerning that firms take a Tl, Cl 3' Cl' and Cl4 one finds long time both in changing their views about the future and in adapting their desired fixed capital stock to them, but take a much shorter time in changing the speed at which accumulation proceeds. This speed is also influenced by the state of credit conditions. Real consumption shows a mean time-lag which is rather a short time.

The speed at which banks adjust the stock of credit to its target value is quite low and highJy significant; the mean time-lag is over two years. This is not surprising since eq. (11) describes the adjustment of a stock 9 • Such an impression is confirmed by the vaJue of alB' the adjustment speed of tbe stock of net foreign assets, which shows a mean time-lag of almost a year. As one might expect, credit expansion produces a considerable increase in capital outflows. This last result enables us to draw a first conclusion about the overall behaviour of the model.

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